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Long Or Short?

12.17

 

From the 11.16 low the market has went straight up. There was timing and price support on the 11.16 low. You can go back on the blog and see the videos we did as the market was coming into that low.

While it seems like the move has been straight up there was a pullback on 11.28. The issue with the pullback is it was very small. To be exact it was .35%. Why does that matter? Because if you look at the Monthly charts you will see that .35% has been symmetry support all the way up. We have noted this multiple times on this blog over the last couple of years.

Why is it valuable? Because .35% is a very small correction and most traders wait for a deeper correction to get long. The end result is the market does not make a deep higher low and continues to go higher. This is exactly why traders have missed the move up from the March 09 lows and why they will miss the next wave.

Not only is it hard to get long without a deep correction it feels right to go short looking for the market to pullback. The thinking that most traders have is that the market is extended in the wave up from March 09 lows. It is not extended it just has high support which makes it seem extended.

Friday we were watching the SPY 142 level close at the close. SPY closed above 142 and today short squeezed the shorts that entered Thursday and Friday of last week. Today the market opened went up then pulled back to .35% intraday, then short squeezed again to close at the high of the day.

Today could be a very important sign that the market is going to make a move up. A close above the high of last week could trigger another round shorts that are forced to cover.

From the 11.16 low it has not been easy trading even though we caught the reversal low day, days in advance. This means even if traders are nailing the levels the traders are not easy. The end result of this is most traders just go short because they miss the long entries. The problem is the shorts are 100% counter trend at this point even though the market is in resistance. Over the last two weeks we have been looking to go short, but we have not had the actual sell signal, so we did not go short. Sometimes the best trade is no trade.

We broke down the Monthly charts in our member webinar which is recorded for all new members, along with our video folder with multiple market update videos.

While it makes sense to think short at this level because of all the news the short trade has not triggered and it is not confirmed at this point. It is easier to not do the work and just short resistance but that has been a losing scenario up to this point. The current wave looks so good short traders will try it multiple times and end up missing the long trade. This is what could take the markets to a new high.

Symmetry support is more important than normal support. When symmetry is higher than normal support the move up can be explosive. I might be one of the only ones saying this but if you look at the charts you will see how .35% has served as true support all the way up.

It is not 100% confirmed we are going higher but the intraday reversal at .35% could be a big sign if there is follow through tomorrow. Right now could be just the starting point of a much larger wave to the upside.

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